If you haven't checked out Nate Silver's analysis of the potential makeup of the US Senate post 2010 election, you should. He has one of the most impressive systems for predictions. I wish I was able to see all the details behind his analysis, but you should definitely read his recent blog post on this, regardless of your political affiliation or understanding of statistics.
I'm not sure where I stand on the outlook for my home state's Senate race. Here's his insights:
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Speaking of which, the Republicans are potentially taking a risk in Kentucky if they nominate someone who's never run a campaign before rather than their Secretary of State."
Any thoughts?
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